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February 16, 2005
PORTLAND ? An analysis (330k PDF or 330k PowerPoint) by the Council concludes that while snow pack and runoff
forecasts for the Columbia River Basin are far below normal for this
time of year, except in British Columbia, the region will not suffer a
power shortage later this year even if the hydropower supply is below
normal. That is because the supply of electricity from other sources,
primarily natural gas-fired power plants, is adequate, if more expensive
than hydropower.
?The worst we would face is slightly higher prices this summer, but
the good news is that we do not face a power shortage,? said Council
Chair Melinda Eden, an Oregon member of the Council.
While snow pack in British Columbia, where the Columbia River begins,
is 90-100 percent of normal, snow pack in northeastern Washington and
northern Idaho is just 25-50 percent of normal. Combined with other
below-normal snow pack levels elsewhere in the Columbia River Basin, the
spring runoff is expected to be 82.4 million acre-feet, measured at The
Dalles Dam. That is 77 percent of normal, and it assumes normal
precipitation between now and the end of July. If dry weather continues
and if precipitation is only 75 percent of normal, runoff would be 71.6
million acre-feet. While that is low, it is not as low as the drought
years of 2001, when runoff was 58 million acre-feet, and 1977, when
runoff was just 54 million acre-feet.
Unlike 2001, however, when the drought exacerbated an existing West
Coast power shortage, the Northwest currently has a power surplus of
about 1,500 megawatts, according to the Council analysis. That is more
than enough power for a city the size of Seattle. Nor is there a risk of
extremely high prices for power, such as resulted in 2001 because of the
diminished supply. In 2001, largely because of the drought and reduced
runoff, the Northwest suffered a 4,000-megawatt power deficit. As a
result, wholesale power prices rose to extraordinary levels.
The Council analysis also suggests that while Columbia basin water
storage reservoirs, such as those behind Grand Coulee Dam in Washington
and Dworshak Dam in Idaho, should be at planned levels by the end of the
summer, river flow objectives established under the Endangered Species
Act for the lower Snake and Columbia rivers are not likely to be met
because of the below-normal inflows into the reservoirs.
The Council is an agency of the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon and
Washington and is directed by the Northwest Power Act of 1980 to prepare
a program to protect, mitigate and enhance fish and wildlife of the
Columbia River Basin affected by hydropower dams while also assuring the
region an adequate, efficient, economical and reliable power supply.
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